Introduction
This article proposes a reading of the emerging international order that begins from the oceans. With the progressive diminishing of the United States’ role as the pivot of the post-Cold War unipolar system, a complex reconfiguration is under way — one in constant motion and difficult to decipher. Analysing it through oceanic space, adopting a view of the ocean planet rather than the land planet, can offer a useful framework for reading this transition.
1. Why the Ocean?
The history of world order has always been written, in part, at sea. From the Roman mare nostrum to British dominance over the Atlantic routes, and on to the American carrier groups that have patrolled the oceans for eighty years, maritime dominance is the infrastructure on which terrestrial political arrangements have rested.
In today’s globalised world this centrality has not diminished: ninety per cent of international trade travels by sea, as does almost all of the oil and liquefied natural gas that fuels industrial economies, while the projection of military power is achieved through fleets, naval bases and rapid deployment routes. At a historical moment in which supply chains have become geopolitical vulnerabilities, and military force has once again become currency in international relations, looking to the oceans represents a methodological choice as useful as it is necessary.
The Two Dominant Poles
The American-Atlantic Pole
The United States is carrying out a gradual strategic reorientation toward the western hemisphere and toward the oceans that bound it, the Atlantic in particular. Faced with the rising costs of global primacy and with China’s growth as a competing power, American strategy is to consolidate control over the territory essential to its national interests and progressively to reduce peripheral commitments.
In the Atlantic, Washington maintains a structural dominance through NATO, the transatlantic economic relationship and its network of bases and naval infrastructure — so much so that the Atlantic is, in practice, a protected interior sea for American power.
by I Bautista via Pexels
The Rise of Offshore Renewables
While fossil fuels still dominate offshore production, the Atlantic is rapidly emerging as a center for renewable energy development. Strong wind patterns, wide continental shelves, and proximity to major coastal markets make the basin particularly well suited for offshore wind power. The Block Island Wind Farm, commissioned in 2016 off Rhode Island, became the first commercial offshore wind farm in the United States and demonstrated the viability of Atlantic offshore wind projects. The United States is accelerating projects along its East Coast, while Brazil and Colombia are emerging as potential offshore wind leaders in South America.
Europe is currently the global leader in offshore wind. Countries bordering the North Sea, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands, have built some of the world’s largest offshore wind farms. Governments in the region aim to transform the North Sea into a vast renewable energy hub capable of producing around 100 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2040.
In Africa, offshore wind remains largely untapped but holds considerable potential. Morocco has proposed a 1-gigawatt offshore wind project near Essaouira, while South Africa is exploring floating wind technologies suited to deeper Atlantic waters. Even the Arctic may eventually contribute to renewable energy systems. Studies suggest significant potential for wind, tidal, and seasonal solar energy in the region, although extreme conditions and limited infrastructure pose major challenges.
Focus on The Gulf of Guinea
Europe’s Atlantic Corridor Emerges
Among the threads of the Atlantic energy system, one corridor is quietly taking center stage: the route connecting the Gulf of Guinea to European markets. It isn’t just one pipeline or terminal, it’s a layered network of offshore oil and gas production, LNG shipments, and competing pipelines. Some stick close to the coast, others cut through the Sahel. Together, they are slowly weaving West African reserves into North African hubs and, eventually, European demand. The process is gradual, sometimes messy, but unmistakably shaping the future. Why This Corridor Matters Three factors make it particularly significant:
- Resource Concentration: The Gulf of Guinea produces around 3.7 million barrels of oil per day. Proposed gas projects could supply 15–30 billion cubic meters annually to Europe.
- Alternative Routes Matter: For Europe, these Atlantic-facing options could help loosen reliance on older Eurasian pipelines, which have long dominated the continent’s energy security.
- Security Concerns: Piracy, political unrest, coastal disputes, and state rivalries make this corridor unpredictable and costly.
At its northern tip, the Strait of Gibraltar remains a strategic choke point. LNG already passes through it in time, Nigerian gas routed via North Africa could follow the same path. For the EU, this corridor is more than an alternative; it’s a glimpse into a shift toward a diversified, yet politically complex, energy landscape.
The Gulf of Guinea: Rich, Fragile, Indispensable
Nigeria produces roughly 1.4–1.5 million barrels of oil daily, Angola about 1 million. Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, Cameroon, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire contribute smaller, but still meaningful, volumes. Much of it comes from offshore or coastal fields linked to terminals sending oil and gas mainly to Europe and Asia.
Nigeria dominates the LNG scene, exporting 12–13 million tonnes in 2023, with Spain and Portugal taking nearly 40%. The Iberian Peninsula has become a key hub. Angola exported 357 million barrels in 2025, generating $24 billion in revenue, with more reaching European refineries each year. Yet, this corridor is fragile: piracy, theft, sabotage, and illegal bunkering disrupt operations. Weak governance and chronic instability along the West African coast add unpredictability. The Gulf of Guinea is therefore both the starting point of the Atlantic energy chain and its most exposed link.
Offshore or Trans-Saharan?
Looking ahead, gas could flow via two competing routes:
- Offshore: The Nigeria–Morocco pipeline (5,660 km, 30 bcm/year, $25 billion) links coastal states before reaching Morocco and Europe via Gibraltar. Its advantage is political insulation: it avoids the Sahel, minimizing exposure to coups or insurgencies. Its challenges include higher costs, reliance on maritime security, and a long construction timeline.
- Trans-Saharan: Shorter (4,128 km), cheaper ($13 billion), and direct, connecting Nigeria to Algeria’s export network. But it crosses areas affected by trafficking, armed violence, and political instability.
In short, offshore buys relative political safety; onshore saves upfront cost but carries heavier security risks.
From the Niger Delta to the Maghreb
Energy infrastructure rarely exists in a neutral space. Many facilities lie near contested areas influenced by armed groups or criminal networks, which can delay projects and raise operating costs. Further north, Algeria and Morocco’s rivalry adds complexity. Algeria has leveraged gas transit politically, rerouting flows. Morocco has tried to position itself as an Atlantic gateway, backing the Nigeria–Morocco project and expanding LNG regasification. The debate isn’t just technical. Behind maps, capacity numbers, and costs lies a deeper geopolitical question: which states, from the Gulf of Guinea to Gibraltar, can turn geography into leverage over Europe’s energy future?
Environmental Considerations
Offshore expansion and thousands of kilometers of pipelines strain marine ecosystems already affected by pollution, overfishing, and climate change. Oil spills, methane leaks, and coastal erosion hit local economies directly. Upstream methane emissions also challenge Europe’s climate goals. The corridor illustrates a familiar tension: it strengthens Europe’s energy resilience while shifting environmental costs onto communities least able to absorb them.
The Eastern Atlantic Route
All told, the Gulf of Guinea–Europe corridor is becoming a vital artery along the eastern Atlantic. Offshore production, LNG terminals, and pipelines combine into a network stretching from West Africa to Europe via North Africa and Gibraltar. It anchors the basin’s eastern flank, shaping not just Europe’s diversification but also who bears the political, security, and environmental costs.