Introduction: Confluence of the Two Seas
The Indo-Pacific has become one of the most frequently cited regions in contemporary global affairs. While it is often framed through the lens of geostrategy, particularly the growing rivalry between the United States and China, this focus risks overlooking a central element shaping the region’s future: the environment.
The Indo-Pacific is not merely a geopolitical construct. It is a vast, interconnected maritime space linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, home to more than half of the world’s population, generating around 40 per cent of global GDP, and carrying roughly 80 per cent of international maritime trade. These two oceans sit at the heart of global economic stability, food security, and climate regulation.
Environmental conditions in the Indo-Pacific are no longer a secondary concern. Climate change, ecosystem degradation, and marine resource stress are reshaping political relations, security priorities, and development pathways across the region. Ocean affairs in the Indo-Pacific cannot be understood without placing the environment at the centre of analysis.
An Environmental Powerhouse
Beyond its strategic importance, the Indo-Pacific is one of the most environmentally significant regions on the planet. It hosts some of the world’s richest marine ecosystems, including the Coral Triangle, the Sunda Shelf, and the Great Barrier Reef. These areas are critical reservoirs of biodiversity and play a fundamental role in global ocean health.
The region’s oceans regulate climate systems, support fisheries that feed hundreds of millions of people, and sustain livelihoods across coastal and island communities. As a result, environmental changes in the Indo-Pacific have consequences that extend far beyond national borders. In fact, changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, and ecosystems are already altering economic prospects, security dynamics, and interstate relations making environmental stress a structural force in Indo-Pacific ocean affairs.
As climate and environmental hazards increase in frequency and intensity, their implications for peace, stability, and development are becoming impossible to ignore: rising sea levels threaten the territorial integrity of low-lying island states; extreme weather events are causing widespread economic losses and displacement; ocean warming and acidification are degrading coral reefs and fisheries, undermining food security and coastal economies.
Environmental Challenges as Strategic Security Issues
The Indo-Pacific is confronting security challenges that extend well beyond traditional military threats. Environmental stressors are now central to regional stability. Among the most significant are:
- Climate-related natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, tsunamis, and heatwaves
- Slow-onset processes including sea-level rise
- Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and overfishing
- Marine pollution and habitat degradation
Environmental degradation, the depletion and pollution of air, water, soil, and marine ecosystems, undermines state capacity, exacerbates inequality, and increases the likelihood of conflict. These pressures increasingly shape how states perceive security and interact across maritime spaces.
Regional Impacts of Climate-Related Risks
Pacific Island States
Pacific Island countries face existential climate risks driven primarily by sea-level rise and extreme weather events. Land loss threatens food security, livelihoods, and cultural identity, while increasing competition over shrinking resources raises the risk of social instability. Climate-induced economic shocks, displacement, and migration are already undermining social cohesion, challenges further complicated by intensifying U.S.–China strategic competition that risks sidelining local priorities.
South and Central Asia
In South and Central Asia, climate change is amplifying tensions around transboundary water resources, undermining agriculture, food security, and livelihoods. Environmental degradation and water stress increase the risk of interstate competition and internal instability, while climate-induced displacement and migration disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and strain governance capacities.
Southeast and East Asia
Southeast Asia is among the most climate-exposed regions globally, with frequent cyclones, floods, and extreme weather events disrupting economies and driving displacement. Declining fish stocks are intensifying competition over maritime resources. In East Asia, climate-related risks vary widely but increasingly intersect with strategic concerns, including disaster-induced migration, vulnerability of critical mineral supply chains, and heightened pressure on maritime and coastal governance.
Pathways Forward: Solutions and Opportunities
Political and Institutional Responses
Regional cooperation is essential to addressing environmental risks in the Indo-Pacific. This includes strengthening regional frameworks, improving data sharing on climate and environmental hazards, and ensuring that resilience strategies are tailored to local, national, and subregional contexts. At the same time, international institutions must broaden their approach to climate-related risks, but given the erosion of trust in some multilateral frameworks, bilateral agreements should also play a greater role. As a result, environmental and ocean issues must be more systematically integrated into diplomatic negotiations.
Scientific and Technical Cooperation
Scientific and technical solutions are critical. Initiatives such as Indonesia’s leadership of the World Economic Forum’s Ocean 20 and the expansion of marine protected areas across the region demonstrate what is possible through coordinated action. Science diplomacy can build trust between states while advancing shared environmental goals. Nevertheless, climate change remains a pressing challenge that requires far greater investment in research, monitoring, and adaptive technologies.
The Role of Indigenous Knowledge
Indigenous and local knowledge systems are essential to understanding and managing marine environments sustainably. Yet, international discussions have largely excluded the experiences and expertise of Indo-Pacific communities. Failing to integrate indigenous knowledge not only weakens environmental governance but also undermines the legitimacy and long-term effectiveness of those who are least responsabile for the environmental degradation but mostly affected by its consequences.
Conclusion: Rethinking Ocean Affairs in the Indo-Pacific
Existing international frameworks have struggled to deliver effective responses to climate and environmental challenges in the Indo-Pacific. Many states remain hesitant to frame their policies explicitly in terms of climate security or climate–peace linkages, viewing these approaches as insufficiently adapted to their specific contexts. There is no single solution. The challenges posed by climate change vary dramatically across the region, and responses must be equally diverse and nuanced.
What is urgently needed is a deeper understanding of how environmental change threatens peace, stability, and development in the Indo-Pacific. As governments expand their strategic engagement with the region, environmental issues must move from the margins to the core of ocean affairs, strengthening bilateral and regional cooperation, embedding environmental concerns into diplomatic frameworks, and leveraging science diplomacy to build trust and resilience. A proactive and effective response to Indo-Pacific challenges must be grounded in local experiences, informed by regional political dynamics, and shaped by culturally and politically relevant solutions.